Nearly 15,000 Municipal Workers at Risk of Disability Pensions Within Three Years, Keva Warns

Keva said in a press release published via ePressi that its new disability risk forecast shows nearly 15,000 municipal and welfare services employees across Finland face the risk of moving onto a disability pension within the next three years – about 2.8 percent of roughly 527,000 workers in the sector.

The forecast comes amid rising sick-leave costs and workplace wellbeing concerns in Pirkanmaa, where regional councillors recently debated a growing sick‑leave bill and staff wellbeing the Pirkanmaa council's briefing. The region's welfare area has opened cooperation talks affecting hundreds of staff, underlining pressure on municipal services ongoing Pirkanmaa welfare staff talks.

Risk differs markedly by region. It is highest in Kymenlaakso (3.5 percent) and in Lapland and Satakunta (both 3.2 percent); Uusimaa has the lowest projected share (2.5 percent). Pirkanmaa and Pohjois-Karjala stand at 2.7 percent. Forecast data show sickness absence days per employee were largest in Kymenlaakso and Keski-Pohjanmaa and smallest in Etelä-Savo and Pohjois-Karjala.

Petra Sohlman, a Keva statistical analyst, linked the gaps to workforce age, absence patterns and job mixes. "In higher-risk regions the average age is above the national mean, there are more sickness absence days and a larger share of long absences over 30 days," she said. Sohlman added the national risk estimate has edged up from 2.6 percent in the 2025 forecast to 2.8 percent now, driven by longer absences among older age groups and an ageing workforce as the lower bound of old-age retirement rises.

There are sharp differences by occupation and age. Doctors face a 1.2 percent three-year risk and primary school teachers 1.4 percent, while hospital and institutional assistants are at 5.3 percent and cleaning and kitchen staff at 4.5 percent. The gap by age is stark: under-35s average 0.4 percent, 35–49-year-olds 1.2 percent, 50–54-year-olds 3.3 percent and workers over 55 about 7.2 percent. Among those over 55, dental nurses, practical nurses and hospital assistants are particularly exposed, with roughly one in ten in these groups in immediate risk.

The organisation highlights the financial stakes and the potential for targeted prevention. For 2025 it estimates immediate disability-related costs of about €700 million for the municipal sector and about €600 million for welfare areas, with sick leave accounting for more than €900 million of those expenses. Its figures show a single short absence (1–6 days) costs employers about €400 on average, a medium absence (6–30 days) about €1,900 and a long absence about €6,000. A full disability pension raised an employer's pension contribution by roughly €185,000 per affected employee in 2025. The updated forecast aims to help organisations identify high-risk groups and target early preventive measures; the full statistical report will be published on Keva's website on 8 October 2026.